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02/03/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - To most NBA fans, Miami is the big time.
That's what happens when LeBron James and Chris Bosh decide to join Dwyane Wade on a "superteam" that plays on the shores of Biscayne Bay and the shadow of South Beach.
But Miami, at least in the real world, isn't as "big time" as you might imagine. According to the Nielsen Company, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale television market is only the 16th largest in the country, one spot ahead of Denver and well behind places like Houston and Detroit, never mind New York, LA and Chicago.
Meanwhile Forbes just labeled Miami as the "most miserable city" in all of America, citing the housing crisis that has devastated the city with 47 percent of homeowners sitting on underwater mortgages. I'm not sure that measuring stick is worthy of Scientific America but foreclosures, according to Forbes, have been rampant with 364,000 properties in the area entering the process since 2008.
To outsiders that only think about the glitz and glamour of Miami Beach or still can picture Don Johnson and Philip Michael Thomas screaming across the bay in a speedboat, that's probably a surprise.
Which got me thinking, maybe the city's basketball team has some smoke and mirrors to it also.
When Miami raced out to a 5-0 start this season one national observer made the ridiculous comment that "this team might win 60" in the lockout-shortened 66- game season. Math is about to prove that pundit a liar unless LeBron and Company rattle off 43 straight to end the season.
If you take a step back and look at things objectively, even after an impressive 99-79 win against upstart Philadelphia, you'll see the Heat for what they really are, a very good team with three great individual players that struggle to play together at times.
Listening to Erik Spoelstra before the game, I couldn't help but be reminded of Lou Holtz, the ex-Notre Dame coach that would talk up every team he was playing whether it was No. 1 Miami or the Little Sisters of the Poor.
"They have as many athletes as we do," the Heat coach said when talking about the Sixers, "maybe more."
In truth, Miami is a horrible matchup problem for the Sixers and has now beaten them nine straight times. While Philadelphia does have a lot of athletes, they simply don't have the skill and perhaps more importantly the length of Miami's big three, making this an untenable matchup for the 76ers.
In fact, if styles make fights -- the Sixers are Marvis Frazier to the Heat's Mike Tyson. Philly lost by 20 points tonight after losing by 21 at Miami on Jan. 21. The team's other five losses are by a combined 24 points.
In the end, Miami probably does deserve its spot as the favorite to win an NBA title. But to call that a foregone conclusion or expect some kind of dynasty in South Florida is more than a stretch.
The Heat certainly have the game's best individual player in James, who took over things tonight late in the third quarter and finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists, but as great as "The King" is, we're nine years into his career and it's time to admit he's never going to have the killer instinct of a big-time closer like a Michael Jordan or Larry Bird.
"I've watched him play without Dwyane Wade and he's a totally different player," Charles Barkley, a guy who knows a thing or two about being a superstar, said when talking about James. "I'm going to challenge him to play like that all the time. He's the best player in the world but for some reason, when Dwyane is on the court, he takes a back seat."
Wade, remains the best "Robin" in today's NBA but his reckless style has already taken a toll and the nagging injuries seem to pop up with greater regularity each and every season. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh has upped his game during his sophomore season in Miami but he's still not the type of intimidating force you need at the defensive end for a team with no true center.
After "Miami Thrice" the talent on Spoelstra's club drops off the table.
"The Heat are not that deep of a team," former NBA GM Steve Kerr recently said, "but the ability of LeBron and Wade to take over games on their own allows Miami to offset various loses throughout the lineup."
It's hard to argue with Kerr. Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers have developed into nice NBA role players that bring young legs and energy to the dance but ask yourself how many other NBA could afford to start them?
Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem add veteran leadership and toughness but both players have seen their better days, while Mike Miller is an excellent pure shooter and a key cog as a weak-side threat off the double team but he's also as one-dimensional as they come and Pat Riley gave serious thoughts to amnestying him.
The rest of Riley's roster is filled with players that could just as easily be featured in a D-League media guide with the possible exception of rookie guard Norris Cole, who has flashed an upside with impressive quickness.
"When you have guys that can dominate the game like those three (James, Wade and Bosh) can it doesn't allow other players to get into the flow of the game," former player and current analyst Greg Anthony said. "It's important that they figure out balance."
It's not like this is the first time three great players have toiled together. Magic had Kareem and James Worthy for a good part of his run in Hollywood but there was still room for borderline stars like Norm Nixon, Byron Scott and Michael Cooper.
Bird had Kevin McHale and Dennis Johnson among others and still worked in Robert Parish and Cornbread Maxwell when he was winning titles in Beantown.
The last championship team here in Philly was loaded with Moses Malone, Julius Erving and Andrew Toney along with borderline Hall of Famers Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones.
Keep it closer to this generation and understand San Antonio has three future Hall of Famers in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili that all fit like a glove around solid role players.
"When you watch Miami, they play with arrogance," Anthony continued. "They feel like they can turn it on and off like a light switch and win a game whenever they want. That lack of intensity is one of the reasons why, at times, they struggle."
On Friday, they were able to turn it on. With the game deadlocked at 61 late in the third quarter, Thaddeus Young blew a bunny at the basket and James decided that it was time to take over. First he drilled a 20-foot step back jumper and followed that with a man's offensive rebound and a finger roll to end the third quarter scoring
Less than nine minutes later Philadelphia was down by 23 and looking for the locomotive that just ran them down.
You saw that arrogance bite the Heat, however, 48 hours earlier in Milwaukee when Miami raced out to a 40-23 lead after the opening 12 minutes. James made 8-of-9 shots from the floor in the first quarter of that one, including going 3-for-3 from beyond the arc as the Heat shot 82.4 percent in the opening frame and made all five of their three-pointers.
Satiated, the Heat took their foot off the gas and Brandon Jennings came back to bite them. In fact, it got so bad that Miami didn't get any closer than eight points over the final 4 1/2 minutes of regulation.
The Heat are a good, at times great team, but they're also a flawed bunch that leaves the door ajar for a host of other NBA contenders.
Friday they were at the best with LeBron running the show next to Wade with Bosh alongside Miller and Haslem up front.
"It's been a long time coming." James said when talking about that lineup. "We've played that lineup a few times in the postseason last year but it wasn't healthy. It's great to have that lineup out there now that we're healthy, and me and D-Wade are able to handle the ball.
"That's what it's about, just camaraderie and teamwork."
If only it were about that every night.
<< Pacers pick up rare win in Dallas
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route to a career-high 30 points to go with nine rebounds and five assists,
leading the Indiana Pacers to a 98-87 victory over the Dallas Mavericks at
America
<< Halak, Blues shut down Kings
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jaroslav Halak stopped all 22 shots he faced
to post his fifth shutout of the season as St. Louis edged Los Angeles, 1-0,
at Scottrade Center.
Jamie Langenbrunner's second-period tally stood as the decid
<< Martin leads balanced attack as Rockets top Suns
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Martin led seven Houston players in
double-digit scoring with 16 points, as the Rockets used their balanced attack
to beat the Phoenix Suns, 99-81.
Luis Scola had 14 points and eight rebounds for
<< Pistons top Bucks to halt slide
Auburn Hills, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pistons had lost a season-high seven
straight entering Friday's matchup with the Bucks, who were in the midst of a
season-long three-game win streak. Then, something gave.
Behind a career-high 26
Denver's Mozgov leaves game with sprained ankle >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Nuggets center Timofey Mozgov left
Friday's game against the Lakers with a sprained left ankle.
With about 10 minutes to go in the third quarter, Mozgov came down awkwardly
on his left ankle afte
Brassard's OT winner lifts Columbus over Anaheim >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derick Brassard scored two goals, including the
game-winner at 3:55 of the overtime period, leading the Columbus Blue Jackets
to a 3-2 victory over the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center.
Brassard poked the puck o
Lakers hold off Nuggets >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Bynum had 22 points, 10 rebounds and
three blocks, helping the Los Angeles Lakers hold off the Denver Nuggets,
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Kobe Bryant added 20 points and nine assists for the Lakers, who have w
Lawrie leads by one in windy Qatar >>
Doha, Qatar (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Lawrie fired a five-under 67 in breezy
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MySportsbook.com: NBA Championship Odds
With the playoffs about two months away, the top two teams in the Western Conference are the clear cut leaders to win the NBA Championship. The Dallas Mavericks have the best record in the NBA (44-9) and have been absolutely scorching since the second week of the season. What makes the Mavs’ record more impressive is the fact that they dropped their first four games of the season. Currently they have won 17 out of their last 18 and are MySportsbook.com’s favorite (2-1) to win it all. Right behind the Mavs are the Pacific leading Phoenix Suns (39-13). Last season, the Suns lost in the Conference Finals to non-other then the Mavericks four games to two. Of course the Suns were without center Amare Stoudemire who has is averaging 19.9 PPG and 9.5 RPG since coming back from his knee injury. Unlike the Mavs, the Suns have struggled a bit lately having lost their last three and four out of their last seven. Of course the main reason for their three straight loses is due to the absence of two time MVP Steve Nash, who is out with a shoulder injury. Heads-up, the Mavs have beaten the Suns in both of their meetings this season.
In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons (32-19) are the favorites to win it all at 6-1. The addition of Chris Webber seems to have been a good move for the Pistons. Since coming over from the 76ers, Webber has averaged 13.1 PPG and 7.3 RPG and the Pistons are 11-4. Even though the defending champion Heat are currently on the playoff making cusp, they are the Eastern Conference team that is getting the most action to win it all (9-1). The fact that Shaquille O’Neal is back in the starting lineup after missing 39 games probably has something to do with this. No doubt, Shaq makes a difference when in the lineup as their winning six out of their last seven would indicate.
Just because it is the All-Star break doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on NBA hoops this weekend. Be sure to log onto MySportsbook.com to bet on who you think will cut down the nets this July. Also, be sure to check out all of the lines and props for All-Star weekend. With the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry, there are plenty of ways to cash in on the NBA this weekend.
MySportsbook.com’s NBA Championship odds:
Atlanta Hawks 1000-1
Boston Celtics 5000-1
Charlotte Bobcats 5000-1
Chicago Bulls 20-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 20-1
Dallas Mavericks 2-1
Denver Nuggets 25-1
Detroit Pistons 6-1
Golden State Warriors 250-1
Houston Rockets 12-1
Indiana Pacers 60-1
Los Angeles Clippers 45-1
Memphis Grizzlies 5000-1
Miami Heat 9-1
Milwaukee Bucks 1000-1
Minnesota T-Wolves 200-1
New Jersey Nets 50-1
New Orleans Hornets 150-1
New York Knicks 150-1
Orlando Magic 75-1
Philadelphia 76ers 1000-1
Phoenix Suns 5-2
Portland TrailBlazers 1000-1
Sacramento Kings 250-1
San Antonio Spurs 9-1
Seattle Sonics 5000-1
Toronto Raptors 35-1
Utah Jazz 20-1
Washington Wizards 25-1
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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