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07/09/2010 - Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darren Clarke carded a four-under 67 in steady rain Friday to extend his lead to three strokes after two rounds of the Scottish Open.
Clarke, who led by one after the first round, completed 36 holes at 10-under- par 132. He is seeking his 13th victory on the European Tour and a spot in next week's British Open.
"It wasn't torrential heavy rain, it was just torrential rain," Clarke said of the weather conditions. "If you're from Ireland there's a difference, a massive difference. We knew it was going to be very hard, but obviously at home in Portrush I've had much worse than this."
The 41-year-old is not yet eligible for the season's third major next weekend. If he were to win this week, he would get one of the last available spots in the field at St. Andrews.
Edoardo Molinari posted a two-under 69 in the afternoon and is alone in second at minus-seven. Molinari, and the rest of the afternoon wave, played in much better conditions than Clarke and the early group at Loch Lomond Golf Club.
Bradley Dredge and Peter Hedblom both carded 69s and are tied for third at six-under-par 136. Francesco Molinari also shot two-under 69 and is one stroke back at minus-five.
Further down the leaderboard, there was plenty of news as well.
Phil Mickelson could have overtaken Tiger Woods for the top spot in the world rankings. However, he was done in by a quintuple-bogey nine on the par-four 18th, his ninth on Friday.
Mickelson got a couple of those strokes back, but not enough as he shot three- over 74 to miss the cut by a stroke at three-over-par 145. Also missing the cut on the number were two-time winner Ernie Els and 2009 champion Martin Kaymer.
Clarke played the back nine first on Friday and three-putted for a bogey on No. 11. That was his first and only bogey of the week. He bounced back with a birdie on the 12th and moved to minus-seven with a chip-in birdie at the 16th.
Around the turn, Clarke poured in three birdies in the first four holes to jump to 10-under. His birdies on one and three came from off the green, before he converted from 20 feet out for birdie at the fourth. Clarke closed with five straight pars to lead by three.
"You have to take what the course gives you and try to grind out a score," Clarke said. "Certainly, I'm very pleased to have ground out four-under. I thought anything around level par was going to be pretty good."
Edoardo Molinari parred his first three holes before dropping in a birdie effort on the fourth. He faltered to a bogey on the par-three eighth, but atoned for that mistake with a birdie at the ninth.
The Italian parred the first four holes of the back nine. Molinari birdied the short par-four 14th, a hole in which he eagled one day earlier. The 2005 U.S. Amateur champion stumbled to a bogey on the 16th, but came back to birdie 17 to end three shots off Clarke's lead.
"I think it was a great round today, it was very windy out there. The wind was hurting a lot," Molinari stated. "I am almost happier today than I was with my 66 [Thursday]."
NOTES: Robert-Jan Derksen (68), Damien McGrane (72) and Graeme Storm (72) share sixth at four-under-par 138...The cut fell at two-over 144 with 68 players moving on to the final two rounds...Y.E. Yang, Vijay Singh, Lucas Glover, 2001 champion Retief Goosen, Robert Allenby, European Ryder Cup captain Colin Montgomerie, 1996 winner Thomas Bjorn and Miguel Angel Jimenez, who has won twice this season, also missed the cut.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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