Preakness win makes Lookin At Lucky first in NTRA Poll

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/17/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lookin At Lucky, coming off his win in the Preakness Stakes, sits atop the latest NTRA Three-year-old Poll. The colt's success in the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown also vaulted him into third-place in the national standings.

The 2009 champion as a two-year-old jumped from fourth in last week's poll into first following a three-quarters length win over First Dude at Pimlico Race Course. Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin At Lucky received 14 first-place votes and 174 points.

Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver, eighth in the Preakness, dropped one spot to second with three first-place votes and 148 points.

Derby runner-up Ice Box did not run on Saturday and also fell one slot to third with 137 points.

Blind Luck, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, rose one position to fourth with 92 points.

Preakness runner-up First Dude enters the poll in fifth with 78 points.

The retired Eskendereya continued to receive one first-place vote and remains in sixth with 58 points.

Jackson Bend, third in the Preakness, also enters the poll in seventh with 48 points.

Dropping from third to eighth is Paddy O'Prado after finishing sixth in the Preakness. Third in the Kentucky Derby, Paddy O'Prado received 47 points.

Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy fell one spot to ninth with 40 points and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Evening Jewel received 31 points to also slide one notch to 10th.

In the NTRA National Poll, undefeated mare Zenyatta and Quality Road are still in the top two spots, respectively. Zenyatta has 14 first-place votes and 170 points while Quality Road has four top votes and 155 points.

Lookin At Lucky received 97 points for third followed by Misremembered 70, Blind Luck 68, Rachel Alexandra 60, Super Saver 57, Unrivaled Belle 45, Blame 36 and Rail Trip with 32 points.

Blame used a win in Saturday's $100,000 William Donald Schaefer Stakes at Pimlico to gain entrance into the poll.

Roolingstone Horseracing Betting News


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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Police report: Terrell Owens hospitalized after attempt

Terrell Owens will address the media at a 3:15 p.m. ET news conference outside the Cowboys' practice facility after an internal police report indicated he tried to kill himself by overdosing on prescription pain medication, even putting two more pills into his mouth after a friend intervened.

The Dallas police report said Owens was asked by rescue workers "if he was attempting to harm himself, at which time [he] stated, 'Yes.'"

Owens left the hospital late Wednesday morning, giving reporters a "thumbs up" but making no comment as he was driven away in an SUV.

Michael Irvin said that Owens denied he attempted suicide and said he was rushed to the hospital as a result of an adverse reaction to medication. And a source close to Owens told Michael A. Smith that Owens wasn't attempting suicide.

NFL Network analyst Deion Sanders said he spoke with Owens shortly before his release from the hospital and that Owens was in good spirits.

"The fact that it has been reported a suicide attempt, he's laughed at that notion. It was a case that medication that was taken wasn't accepted well in his system with the other vitamins he's on," Sanders said.

The series of events began a little before 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Owens' publicist, Kim Etheredge, said she was at Owens' home when he took pain medicine for his broken right hand. Concerned by how he began acting, Etheredge said in various interviews Wednesday with Dallas-area media that she called 911. Owens was taken to a hospital, with Etheredge saying it was an allergic reaction to the medicine.

But early Wednesday, several media outlets received a police report -- that had yet to be released by the authorities -- saying Owens had attempted suicide by overdosing on the painkillers, even putting two more pills into his mouth after an unidentified friend intervened.

The police document, first reported by WFAA-TV, said Owens was asked by rescue workers "if he was attempting to harm himself, at which time [he] stated, 'Yes.'"

When officially released by police, about half the document was blacked out, including the phrases "attempting suicide by prescription pain medication" and "a drug overdose," as well as the details of Owens having two pills pried from his mouth and Owens saying "Yes" when asked if he intended to harm himself.

Etheredge, who said she was the friend cited in the police document, told Dallas-area media Wednesday that the police got the story wrong.

The tape of the 911 call could help clear things up. The Associated Press filed a request under the Freedom of Information Act to get its contents, but fire department officials said it would not be available before late Wednesday.

The police report said the 32-year-old Owens told his friend "that he was depressed." Details of the police report were first reported by WFAA-TV.

The friend, who is not identified in the report, "noticed that [his] prescription pain medication was empty and observed [Owens] putting two pills in his mouth," the police report said.

Using her fingers, the friend attempted to pry them out of Owens' mouth. Owens told police he had taken only five of the 40 pain pills in the bottle he'd emptied before the incident.

Etheredge told the Star-Telegram that Owens was "fine."

Etheredge said she called 911 because Owens was groggy and lethargic. After taking some supplements "it kicked in a reaction" with the painkillers, she told the Star-Telegram.

"Here's a person whose body is so clean, it really had a negative reaction to the medication and supplements he was taking," Etheridge told The Morning News. "Thank goodness someone was there to call an ambulance."

Police Lt. Rick Watson said he could only confirm that paramedics called police to say they were taking Owens to the hospital. He said no more details would come from the police because no laws were broken.

It is not a crime in Texas for a person to attempt suicide.

"This is a high-profile person. We looked into it and we determined it is not a criminal offense," Watson said. "This a medical type of situation that occurred."

Watson and fire department spokesman Joel Lavender cited privacy laws for the lack of information they could provide. Lavender said more details could come from the 911 call. The Associated Press filed a request under the Freedom of Information Act to get the contents of the call.

"Let's just look at the tape, review the tape," Lavender said. "I'll give you an honest answer once I know something."

At the police news conference, Watson released a version of the police narrative with certain sections blacked out. The full report was obtained by several news outlets and reported first by WFAA. The AP received the full version from WFAA.

According to the police report, Dallas Fire and Rescue was called regarding someone "attempting suicide by prescription pain medication." Officers arrived to find Owens being stabilized by ambulance workers, who then took him to Baylor University Medical Center.

Owens was hospitalized late Tuesday because of what his publicist said was an allergic reaction to pain medicine he was taking for a broken hand. Doctors reportedly tried to induce vomiting.

Owens, one of the league's top receivers during his 11-year NFL career, is best known for wild stunts on the field and other publicity-seeking antics off it.

When the Cowboys signed him to a $25 million, three-year deal in March, they said their background checks indicated no red flags. In fact, team consultant Calvin Hill -- who mostly deals with troubled players -- said during training camp that his department was not involved with Owens because he didn't have a history of those kinds of problems.

He missed most of training camp, and three of four preseason games, because of a hamstring injury. He was late for work during his recovery and was fined for it, but Owens laughed it off, saying he overslept. He said it had happened before, though not with Dallas, and would probably happen again.

Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger during a game a week ago Sunday. The next day, doctors screwed in a plate so the bone could heal without fear of further damage. Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said last week that the pain medicine made Owens ill.

Owens had not practiced since the injury, but because Dallas had a bye this past weekend he did not miss a game. He was expected to practice Wednesday, and Parcells had said there was a chance Owens could play Sunday against Tennessee.

Owens had been especially looking forward to the Cowboys' game after that -- Oct. 8, in Philadelphia, against the team that dumped him midway through last season only months after he helped them nearly win the Super Bowl.

Owens was seen laughing and joking on the practice field Tuesday morning. He chatted briefly with reporters in the locker room in the afternoon and seemed fine. A 2-inch scar on the top of his hand was puffy but not wrapped, and he said the swelling was doing down.

While in the locker room, he took a pill from a white paper bag and looked at another medicine bottle that was in the bag. He also called a business partner about a towel-wrap venture they're starting and joked to TV cameras that he wasn't talking until Wednesday and it was only Tuesday.

"My little boy knows better than that," he said, laughing, as he plopped onto a sofa in the middle of the locker room.

Also Tuesday, Owens was involved in launching a national campaign for the National Alliance to End Abuse, an organization aimed at helping at-risk youngsters. He appeared at a high school Tuesday morning and was scheduled to visit others but had to cancel because of changes in the team's practice schedule.

Owens has played two games for the Cowboys, catching nine passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. For updated football betting lines and Dallas Cowboy Superbowl odds visit online sportsbook MySportsbook.com

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