Wild weekend at Watkins Glen

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/13/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Which one of the following things happened this weekend?

1) Robby Gordon made more friends than enemies.

2) Bill Elliott showed another reason they call him "Awesome Bill from Dawsonville" when he gave up his ride so Boris Said would get a chance to race.

3) NASCAR's winningest active driver on a road course, Jeff Gordon, simply drove off the track while leading with two laps to go.

4) Tony Stewart continued his annual summer display of driving prowess, winning his third race in four events.

5) Two of NASCAR's biggest names, Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya, got into a yelling and shoving match during the race.

The answer, as any avid Nextel Cup fan will tell you, is all of the above.

The Centurion Boats at the Glen was one of the most compelling races of the year. The drama began even before the green flag dropped.

After driver Robby Gordon self-destructed in a Busch Series race at Montreal a week ago, he was in the doghouse of many fans and NASCAR. Though he may have been wronged by NASCAR in a caution-flag ruling, his punting of race leader Marcos Ambrose during the race's final laps was not appreciated.

But owner Robby Gordon showed some intestinal fortitude when he offered Ambrose his first chance in a Nextel Cup car as "repayment" for his actions. Unfortunately, rain ended Ambrose's chance to qualify, but both owner and driver have said that they will try again sometime later this year.

When Nextel Cup qualifying was rained out of Friday, a number of other drivers were left out in the cold too. One of them, Boris Said, is a favorite up and down the garage and in the stands. His car didn't have enough owner points to qualify, and the only way he would be able to see the race was from the stands.

Then Bill Elliott stepped forward and offered his car to Said, who thought the racing legend was joking at first. But Elliott was serious, and after working out the details, Said would start from the back of the field. The "road course specialist" who taught many Nextel Cup drivers how to drive at Infineon and Watkins Glen finished a solid 14th. Better still, the "Saidheads" in the stands got a chance to see their favorite drive on the track.

The race itself was as exciting a road-course race as NASCAR has ever produced. Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon were the class of the field, leading 71 of 90 laps. In the opening portion of the race, Gordon led Stewart, but on lap 14 Stewart took command. He was still in control on lap 45 when he inexplicably went too deep into turn one and spun the No.20 Home Depot Chevrolet.

Gordon jumped on the slip-up, as Stewart fell all the way to 19th before he could restart his car and get going. From there, Stewart drove with all the considerable talent that the Rushville, IN native owns and with two laps to go was back in second place pressuring Gordon.

Gordon had won nine times on road courses, and the usually unflappable driver seemed headed for No. 10. But in the same corner that Stewart had spun out earlier, Gordon showed that he was human after all. Like Stewart, he took it too deep into the corner, the car jumped on him and he found himself watching helplessly as Stewart flew by him and on to the victory.

And of course, what would a NASCAR event be without an argument between drivers? This one was between two pretty good ones - 2007 Daytona 500 winner Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya.

It started when Montoya was hit from behind heading into the same treacherous turn one that Jeff Gordon and Stewart had so much trouble with. This time Montoya was sent careening into Harvick who could see his championship aspirations going up in tire smoke.

The two were stopped in the "grass" and both drivers were clearly angry. Harvick at Montoya, because that's who he saw hit him and Montoya at Martin Truex Jr., the driver who had push him into Harvick. Montoya tried explaining the situation, but Harvick wouldn't hear it. The two began shoving each other and had to be broken up before it got too bloody.

All-in-all, the race showed was what makes NASCAR so popular - great driving and great emotion.

Bravo!

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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